A Strategic Blueprint for Nonviolent Educational Movements (NEM)
The following is a 26-minute read
The first section introduces a hypothetical plan for a Nonviolent Civilian Movement (NEM). It emphasizes that the presented plan is theoretical, aiming to provide an analysis and introduction to organizing and promoting nonviolent actions. The use of a hypothetical scenario is due to the necessity of keeping real strategic plans confidential. The text encourages readers not to directly adopt it for future organizational strategies due to inherent impractical elements.
The introduction discusses the challenges activists face in initiating strategic opposition movements in authoritarian regimes like China. It highlights the need for organized, strategic movements, drawing examples from historical events such as the civil rights movement in the United States and the limitations of leader-dependent movements. The analysis also references the 2019 Hong Kong protests, emphasizing the importance of organization in sustaining large-scale movements.
The text suggests that individual actions are unstable within a movement, and stability comes from organized efforts. It draws parallels with historical examples and advocates for a leaderless model to achieve stability in modern organizations and political opposition movements.
To succeed in such endeavors, the text suggests activists analyze their situation from a long-term and strategic perspective, fostering resilient and continuously evolving movement forces. The author aims to depart from historical studies and instead envisions the future of movements based on the current state, applying predecessors' achievements to devise strategic plans.
Referencing the "know thyself, know thy enemy" principle, the text plans to start its discussion with a "SWOT analysis" (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) as a strategic planning foundation. The subsequent chapters delve into self-reflection, organization building, strategic tools, and a hypothetical NEM plan. The ultimate goal is to offer a comprehensive guide for strategic planning, concluding with a brief summary.
The following text outlines a hypothetical plan for a Nonviolent Civilian Movement (NEM) in China, providing a theoretical demonstration for organizing and promoting nonviolent non-cooperation actions. The author emphasizes the need for strategic planning due to China's intolerance for dissent. The document explores historical movements, including those in Hong Kong and globally, emphasizing the importance of organized actions over individual efforts. It concludes by discussing China's current challenges, indicating potential for a strategic opposition movement given economic, political, and social crises.
The next part of the text discusses how Chinese people interpret and face challenges amid global pressures and potential crises. It mentions geopolitical situations like the conflict between Hamas and Israel, highlighting concerns about the Chinese government's actions. The author expresses skepticism about expecting foreign intervention and emphasizes the need for self-reliance and collective efforts among the Chinese people to resist authoritarian rule. Overall, it underscores the importance of self-rescue rather than relying on external assistance.
The next section delves into the choice between violence and non-violence as a means of resistance in the context of Chinese opposition to an oppressive regime. It dismisses the viability of violence due to the lack of resources and the overwhelming power of the government. The focus is on the concept of non-violent resistance, emphasizing the need for unity among the people to challenge the political system systematically. The author advocates for strategic planning, citing the importance of persistence, conscious leadership, and widespread non-cooperation to paralyze the existing political machinery. The text concludes by highlighting the necessity of organizing a movement for sustained and effective resistance, drawing parallels with historical movements like the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and the importance of organized efforts in achieving lasting change.
In the following chapter, the focus is on the establishment of the movement organization ("运动方") and the considerations around its registration. The text argues that whether formally registered or not, a movement organization operates similarly, with the key difference being the official acknowledgment and protection from the government for registered entities. It highlights the underground nature of many movements in China due to both government restrictions and activists' concerns about legality, morality, and development.
The text discusses civil disobedience as an essential aspect of non-violent movements, emphasizing the deliberate violation of unjust laws or policies as a means of expressing opposition. It provides the example of the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa, which operated underground due to the government's opposition. The author argues that successful movements can exist without formal registration, pointing to various global examples.
Addressing the legality issue, the text mentions a recent news incident where an elderly lawyer shot environmental activists during a protest. It brings up discussions about the justifiability of such actions and quotes an online user's perspective on the importance of protests affecting change even if they follow the law.
The author concludes by stressing that opposition movements, whether strategic or independent, often involve actions deemed illegal by the government. In the Chinese context, legality doesn't necessarily align with specific laws but is often perceived in the framework of morality. The text cites a political philosophy professor from Yale University to argue that laws need recognition of legitimacy to be effective and differentiates between legal norms governing public life and moral principles governing personal conduct, advising organizers not to equate illegality with moral wrongdoing.
In the following section, the focus is on the challenges faced by opposition movements in China, particularly in the context of the NEM movement against brainwashing education. It emphasizes the difficulty of finding potential team members, given the limitations within the Chinese education system, which lacks subjects related to non-governmental organizations or social movements.
The text discusses the concept of "learning from history" ("以史为镜") and critiques its application in the Chinese context. It suggests that clinging to traditional practices may hinder the success of a movement, highlighting the need for activists to break free from historical assumptions and adapt to the changing world, especially in the era of rapid technological advancement.
The author points out the reluctance of many activists to pursue organizational structures, often resulting in disorganized and ineffective movements. It stresses the importance of professionalization within a movement, drawing parallels with the requirements of regular businesses. The text argues that successful movements need to surpass the professionalism of the ruling authorities to attract support and resources.
Addressing the concept of "empowerment," the text discusses the necessity for members to enhance their expertise through continuous learning. It emphasizes that a movement's strength lies in the collective empowerment of its members, enabling the organization to attract a broader audience and compete against more established entities.
The section concludes by highlighting the need for systematic learning and warns against the spread of unverified information or celebrity quotes as a substitute for genuine empowerment. It encourages a nuanced understanding of empowerment that includes learning from diverse perspectives, particularly from movements led by people of color who have historically achieved success in non-violent resistance.
The upcoming chapter is anticipated to delve into the strategic planning and technical tools employed by the hypothetical movement organization named "先导" (XianDao).
The following text discusses the challenges and strategies associated with organizing a nonviolent resistance movement in the context of opposing authoritarian rule, particularly in China. The focus is on the need for organized, strategic efforts to resist oppressive regimes. Key points include the limitations of violence as an option in China, the importance of nonviolent resistance, the establishment and development of a movement organization, and the concept of empowerment through learning and specialization. The text emphasizes the significance of professionalism, systematic learning, and trust within the organization, aiming to create a parallel structure capable of challenging the existing power dynamics. It sets the stage for further discussions on strategic planning and technical tools in the subsequent chapter.
Chapter 3 discusses the importance of strategic planning and technical tools in the success of a nonviolent resistance movement. It distinguishes between two levels of strategy: the overall strategic planning involving collaboration between different organizations and the organizational-level strategy focusing on the activities carried out by individual activists within a specific organization.
The text introduces the concept of "total strategic planning" or "大战略," emphasizing its eternal nature and significance in guiding the movement. It highlights the need for collaboration among various movement organizations to overcome differences and find common ground. The example of the nonviolent resistance against the military regime in Myanmar is presented, illustrating how diverse groups need a feasible total strategy for effective coordination, negotiation, and maintaining a nonviolent stance.
The author proposes the idea of building a "subversive" parallel structure, aiming to unite different organizations under a common goal of creating a new operational system reflecting the collective will for freedom. This envisioned structure, termed the "National Movement Parliament" or "全民运动议会," serves as the highest coordinating body for all nonviolent movement organizations. The text concludes with the notion of a "roadmap," indicating the potential challenges and time-consuming nature of achieving this goal. The parallel structure seeks consensus among various organizations, temporarily setting aside specific demands, and avoiding simplistic negative statements to create a shared strategic objective. The chapter concludes by foreshadowing the detailed discussion on organizational strategies in the next section.
Section 3.2 introduces the concept of strategy in the context of a nonviolent resistance movement, drawing inspiration from military strategies outlined in Sun Tzu's Art of War. The text compares a movement to a war, emphasizing that, although nonviolent means replace weapons, activists must understand how to effectively utilize nonviolent methods as tools.
The text highlights that a nationwide nonviolent resistance movement typically involves numerous organizations collaborating. Examples, such as the Myanmar democracy movement in the 1990s, East Timor independence movement, and Poland's Solidarity labor union movement, illustrate the decentralized nature of movements with local groups operating based on shared goals and guiding principles.
Building on these theoretical insights, the text assumes that the "先导" (Pioneer) team positions itself within the national knowledge sphere to activate a united nationwide opposition movement. This movement, termed the "先导知识运动" (Pioneer Knowledge Movement) or "新教育运动" (New Education Movement/NEM), aims to overthrow the established subjects, content, and educational system in the current education system.
The rationale behind designing this movement lies in the Pioneer team's belief that, as a knowledge-oriented organization, venturing into unfamiliar areas such as labor, farmer, student, or citizen movements would limit their potential for future expansion, societal communication, and mobilization capabilities. The team expresses confidence in effectively intervening in the existing education system to promote a new education system, breaking free from China's long-standing indoctrination education.
The NEM sets out to resist the current education system, leading the way and inspiring all knowledge elites to join the opposition movement, ultimately causing a paralysis of the existing education system. The text emphasizes the need to establish seemingly impossible long-term goals for a successful movement, contrasting with short-term and easily achievable goals that often lead to unpredictable outcomes and difficulties in preserving movement achievements.
The example provided illustrates that if NEM were to set an easily achievable goal, like offering online courses, the attracted students might not represent the target group – knowledge elites. This would hinder the movement's progress to the next stage, leading to unpredictable future developments and blind, step-by-step actions.
NEM's long-term goals are established through learning nonviolent movement strategy knowledge, applying it to the strategic formulation process. The subsequent content in the chapter promises to detail NEM's strategy formulation and evaluation based on this knowledge.
Section 3.2.1 elaborates on the strategic phases of a movement, emphasizing the need to set seemingly unattainable goals and break them down into manageable tasks, akin to decomposing complex tasks in computer language. The approach involves dividing the intricate work into numerous simpler tasks, as demonstrated by Stanford University professor's creation of computer animation, starting from a basic bouncing ball.
Marovic (2021) categorizes a movement's strategy into three levels, represented in the lower-left diagram as three tiers of strategic planning. The highest level, termed "STRATEGY" in the diagram, corresponds to the long-term plan – a single organization's strategic plan aiming to achieve the movement's ultimate goal. In the case of NEM, this goal is to "overthrow the established subjects, content, and educational system in the current education system."
To attain such a goal, viable pathways must be laid out for team analysis and discussion. The Pioneer team identifies two potential paths: relying on the existing education system to force reform through persuasion, protests, urging students and parents to resist, or directly establishing a new educational system, a parallel structure in education. After discussing the first path's feasibility and concluding its unlikelihood due to the government's resistance to change, the team favors the second path despite its challenges.
Choosing the second path initiates the first step in strategic goal decomposition – the concretization of strategic goals or tasks. This sets the stage for the second level of strategic design, labeled "CAMPAIGN" in the diagram. This level involves turning the detailed goal into several implementation stages, each with its corresponding interim goals or tasks, referred to as "campaigns" in warfare and "movements" in nonviolent resistance.
For NEM, the three-stage movement structure is presented as an illustrative example, acknowledging that, in practice, three stages may be insufficient. The text explains the launch conditions for each stage and how the completion of the second stage sets the target for the third stage. The third stage aims to attract students nationwide to voluntarily abandon the official education system and enter the NEM education system. To initiate the third stage, specific conditions must be met in the second stage, which, in turn, hinges on achieving particular targets in the first stage.
The text briefly skips the derivation process, assuming the Pioneer team has established the first stage's task goals. The initiation of the first stage movement involves specifying the strategic goal's path, either through self-establishment or collaboration with a third party. While some team members argue for a visible public movement, others stress the strategic importance of ultimately building a parallel, scalable education system rather than an early public display of the movement.
The next part of the text delves into the detailed execution of the first stage movement, focusing on the specific implementation plans or tactics. This phase, depicted as the third level in the diagram (top diagram), is referred to as "TACTICS." It involves defining concrete actions corresponding to each stage of the movement. Various specific ideas can be proposed at this level, such as the need for NEM to establish courses, design curricula, and create educational materials.
The team now shifts to the finer details of execution, contemplating how to implement the first stage movement's goals. Suggestions include setting up courses, designing curricula, and developing educational materials. The team considers how to make the new education system enticing to students, emphasizing that it must demonstrate superior quality compared to the existing system. To achieve this, collaboration with credible education systems outside China is proposed, recognizing the challenges of establishing credibility independently in a short time.
The document briefly mentions that specific tactics require further detailed planning during the execution of the movement plan. It stresses the importance of developing a detailed plan at this stage.
The text then reflects on why a nationwide movement requires numerous organizations, highlighting the three hierarchical levels of organizational strategic planning. It draws an analogy to a strategic business case involving different retailers' strategic choices for online vegetable shopping. The diverse backgrounds and limitations of each retailer influence their strategic decisions, emphasizing that the effectiveness of a chosen path may not be immediately evident.
The importance of an open-minded approach is emphasized, encouraging different teams to progress the movement in ways they deem most suitable without judging others' choices. The analogy underscores the significance of an open mindset and collaboration in a movement that involves significant national transformation.
The conclusion drawn from the analysis is that openness and acceptance of different approaches are crucial. Teams should follow their ideologies and plans, recognizing that the effectiveness of a chosen path is determined by facts, and the ultimate result of the movement is more important than the success or failure of individual small teams.
The discussion reinforces the interconnectedness of the three hierarchical levels in the strategy, with the movement serving as the key link. Movements, in their logic and timeline, establish a high correlation between tactics and strategic goals. The implementation of movements hinges on crucial decisions, such as choosing actions under movement goals, representing the tactics. Additionally, determining when a movement starts and ends, progressing to the next stage or the climax of the movement, is identified as a challenging decision within a movement. These aspects are highlighted as topics for further discussion in the following sections.
The next part discusses the importance of using technical tools in formulating strategies to ensure the practical feasibility of plans. It compares this process to driving a car, emphasizing that adherence to rules and the use of technology are essential to avoid accidents.
One such technical tool mentioned is the SWOT analysis, which evaluates strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The analysis should be a collective effort by the team, dividing into four groups to assess each theme and then collectively evaluate the situation. The document provides a simplified SWOT analysis table for reference, considering both internal and external factors affecting the movement.
The SWOT analysis is acknowledged as a careful process that needs to be cautious to avoid misjudgments and errors. A severe misjudgment in the SWOT analysis could lead to a failure in achieving the expected goals of the entire strategic plan, wasting time and resources.
Recognizing the limitation of SWOT, which focuses on the current state without considering future changes, the need for a backup plan (B plan) is emphasized. In the event of extreme situations, where a single factor has an overwhelming impact, the team is advised to devise B plans to address the consequences of each extreme scenario. This involves a TOWS analysis, considering each element as a single factor causing extreme effects.
The role of B plans is highlighted through examples, such as the Solidarity labor union in Poland facing extreme circumstances, and the crash of the Polish president's plane in 2010. These instances demonstrate the importance of having plans in place to navigate through extreme events and maintain the minimal operation of the system.
The text introduces two additional technical strategic design tools: Alliance Spectrum Analysis and Power Pillar Theory. The subsequent sections promise to explain how NEM utilizes these tools to develop its plans.
The "Spectrum of Allies" is a strategy developed by George Lakey to effectively convey information to the public during movements. It involves segmenting the audience into a broad spectrum and tailoring specific messages for different subgroups to avoid alienating anyone. The goal is not to make everyone an active supporter but to shift different groups slightly toward supporting the movement, isolating the rulers and prompting passive opponents, like police and military, to stand neutrally.
The text then introduces the "Power Pillar Theory," developed by Gene Sharp and his collaborator Saffiyah. This theory analyzes the power structure of a society, identifying a group that provides essential support to maintain and expand the current regime and rulers, termed "power pillars." These pillars include various entities like police, military, ruling institutions, public servants, education systems, organized religious institutions, state-controlled media, business, and other organizations. The theory suggests that attacking the weakest pillar, based on the movement's characteristics, can lead to the collapse of the entire power structure.
In summary, both the "Spectrum of Allies" and the "Power Pillar Theory" are strategic tools that nonviolent movements can employ to effectively communicate with the public and dismantle the power structure, respectively. These approaches aim to garner support, neutralize passive opponents, and strategically weaken pillars of power to bring about social change.
The strategic analysis for NEM involves targeting the education sector, specifically focusing on the weakest pillar in the power structure. The plan unfolds in three steps:
In conclusion, the success of a movement depends on careful organization, strategic planning, and understanding the different stages of mobilization. Misjudgments of success or failure in movements often stem from a shallow understanding of the complexities involved and the hidden groundwork carried out by successful movements before gaining public attention.
The SMART strategy evaluation tool helps define specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound goals for a movement's objectives. Applying this tool to NEM's first phase, where the goal is to establish an educational program plan, can be analyzed as follows:
In selecting tactics for the first phase of NEM's movement, the team is likely to focus on constructive approaches, given the potential risks associated with confrontational methods. The preference for constructive tactics allows the team to engage in actions that are not entirely public, minimizing the risk of participant arrests and penalties.
Within the constructive category, NEM might consider various tactics, such as communication strategies that are open to the public but do not disclose participant information, enabling individuals to decide whether to join the movement. The three main types of resistance behaviors—verbal expression, omission of actions, and active engagement—are evaluated based on their relevance to the movement's goals.
The emphasis for NEM is likely to be on proactive actions, especially in building an alternative education system to counter the government-controlled one. This aligns with the strategic choice of constructing alternative institutions or actions to replace the existing system.
It's crucial to note that some actions, while considered brave, might not align with the principles of nonviolent resistance. Actions that rely on conventional or legal procedures, lack replicability, involve non-partisan third parties, require some level of cooperation from the adversary, or primarily serve material supply purposes may not be regarded as nonviolent resistance tactics.
As NEM progresses, the team can strategically choose specific tactics within these categories for the first phase of the movement, aligning them with the overarching goals and principles of nonviolent resistance.
The next section discusses the nonviolent movement strategy outlined for NEM (New Education Movement). It emphasizes the importance of thorough research, strategic planning, and the careful selection of tactics for each stage of the movement.
Key points include the need for multiple organizations to collaborate, the establishment of long-term plans with phased movements, and the selection or development of tactics based on existing frameworks. It highlights the significance of unity among various movement organizations during the peak of the movement, resembling a coordinated effort similar to an election campaign.
Additionally, the text encourages movement organizations not to be overly concerned about the legality of their actions, as the definition of legality may vary based on regional regulations. The author expresses hope for the initiation of numerous movements and anticipates their eventual unity to achieve historical political freedom.
The introduction discusses the challenges activists face in initiating strategic opposition movements in authoritarian regimes like China. It highlights the need for organized, strategic movements, drawing examples from historical events such as the civil rights movement in the United States and the limitations of leader-dependent movements. The analysis also references the 2019 Hong Kong protests, emphasizing the importance of organization in sustaining large-scale movements.
The text suggests that individual actions are unstable within a movement, and stability comes from organized efforts. It draws parallels with historical examples and advocates for a leaderless model to achieve stability in modern organizations and political opposition movements.
To succeed in such endeavors, the text suggests activists analyze their situation from a long-term and strategic perspective, fostering resilient and continuously evolving movement forces. The author aims to depart from historical studies and instead envisions the future of movements based on the current state, applying predecessors' achievements to devise strategic plans.
Referencing the "know thyself, know thy enemy" principle, the text plans to start its discussion with a "SWOT analysis" (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) as a strategic planning foundation. The subsequent chapters delve into self-reflection, organization building, strategic tools, and a hypothetical NEM plan. The ultimate goal is to offer a comprehensive guide for strategic planning, concluding with a brief summary.
The following text outlines a hypothetical plan for a Nonviolent Civilian Movement (NEM) in China, providing a theoretical demonstration for organizing and promoting nonviolent non-cooperation actions. The author emphasizes the need for strategic planning due to China's intolerance for dissent. The document explores historical movements, including those in Hong Kong and globally, emphasizing the importance of organized actions over individual efforts. It concludes by discussing China's current challenges, indicating potential for a strategic opposition movement given economic, political, and social crises.
The next part of the text discusses how Chinese people interpret and face challenges amid global pressures and potential crises. It mentions geopolitical situations like the conflict between Hamas and Israel, highlighting concerns about the Chinese government's actions. The author expresses skepticism about expecting foreign intervention and emphasizes the need for self-reliance and collective efforts among the Chinese people to resist authoritarian rule. Overall, it underscores the importance of self-rescue rather than relying on external assistance.
The next section delves into the choice between violence and non-violence as a means of resistance in the context of Chinese opposition to an oppressive regime. It dismisses the viability of violence due to the lack of resources and the overwhelming power of the government. The focus is on the concept of non-violent resistance, emphasizing the need for unity among the people to challenge the political system systematically. The author advocates for strategic planning, citing the importance of persistence, conscious leadership, and widespread non-cooperation to paralyze the existing political machinery. The text concludes by highlighting the necessity of organizing a movement for sustained and effective resistance, drawing parallels with historical movements like the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and the importance of organized efforts in achieving lasting change.
In the following chapter, the focus is on the establishment of the movement organization ("运动方") and the considerations around its registration. The text argues that whether formally registered or not, a movement organization operates similarly, with the key difference being the official acknowledgment and protection from the government for registered entities. It highlights the underground nature of many movements in China due to both government restrictions and activists' concerns about legality, morality, and development.
The text discusses civil disobedience as an essential aspect of non-violent movements, emphasizing the deliberate violation of unjust laws or policies as a means of expressing opposition. It provides the example of the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa, which operated underground due to the government's opposition. The author argues that successful movements can exist without formal registration, pointing to various global examples.
Addressing the legality issue, the text mentions a recent news incident where an elderly lawyer shot environmental activists during a protest. It brings up discussions about the justifiability of such actions and quotes an online user's perspective on the importance of protests affecting change even if they follow the law.
The author concludes by stressing that opposition movements, whether strategic or independent, often involve actions deemed illegal by the government. In the Chinese context, legality doesn't necessarily align with specific laws but is often perceived in the framework of morality. The text cites a political philosophy professor from Yale University to argue that laws need recognition of legitimacy to be effective and differentiates between legal norms governing public life and moral principles governing personal conduct, advising organizers not to equate illegality with moral wrongdoing.
In the following section, the focus is on the challenges faced by opposition movements in China, particularly in the context of the NEM movement against brainwashing education. It emphasizes the difficulty of finding potential team members, given the limitations within the Chinese education system, which lacks subjects related to non-governmental organizations or social movements.
The text discusses the concept of "learning from history" ("以史为镜") and critiques its application in the Chinese context. It suggests that clinging to traditional practices may hinder the success of a movement, highlighting the need for activists to break free from historical assumptions and adapt to the changing world, especially in the era of rapid technological advancement.
The author points out the reluctance of many activists to pursue organizational structures, often resulting in disorganized and ineffective movements. It stresses the importance of professionalization within a movement, drawing parallels with the requirements of regular businesses. The text argues that successful movements need to surpass the professionalism of the ruling authorities to attract support and resources.
Addressing the concept of "empowerment," the text discusses the necessity for members to enhance their expertise through continuous learning. It emphasizes that a movement's strength lies in the collective empowerment of its members, enabling the organization to attract a broader audience and compete against more established entities.
The section concludes by highlighting the need for systematic learning and warns against the spread of unverified information or celebrity quotes as a substitute for genuine empowerment. It encourages a nuanced understanding of empowerment that includes learning from diverse perspectives, particularly from movements led by people of color who have historically achieved success in non-violent resistance.
The upcoming chapter is anticipated to delve into the strategic planning and technical tools employed by the hypothetical movement organization named "先导" (XianDao).
The following text discusses the challenges and strategies associated with organizing a nonviolent resistance movement in the context of opposing authoritarian rule, particularly in China. The focus is on the need for organized, strategic efforts to resist oppressive regimes. Key points include the limitations of violence as an option in China, the importance of nonviolent resistance, the establishment and development of a movement organization, and the concept of empowerment through learning and specialization. The text emphasizes the significance of professionalism, systematic learning, and trust within the organization, aiming to create a parallel structure capable of challenging the existing power dynamics. It sets the stage for further discussions on strategic planning and technical tools in the subsequent chapter.
Chapter 3 discusses the importance of strategic planning and technical tools in the success of a nonviolent resistance movement. It distinguishes between two levels of strategy: the overall strategic planning involving collaboration between different organizations and the organizational-level strategy focusing on the activities carried out by individual activists within a specific organization.
The text introduces the concept of "total strategic planning" or "大战略," emphasizing its eternal nature and significance in guiding the movement. It highlights the need for collaboration among various movement organizations to overcome differences and find common ground. The example of the nonviolent resistance against the military regime in Myanmar is presented, illustrating how diverse groups need a feasible total strategy for effective coordination, negotiation, and maintaining a nonviolent stance.
The author proposes the idea of building a "subversive" parallel structure, aiming to unite different organizations under a common goal of creating a new operational system reflecting the collective will for freedom. This envisioned structure, termed the "National Movement Parliament" or "全民运动议会," serves as the highest coordinating body for all nonviolent movement organizations. The text concludes with the notion of a "roadmap," indicating the potential challenges and time-consuming nature of achieving this goal. The parallel structure seeks consensus among various organizations, temporarily setting aside specific demands, and avoiding simplistic negative statements to create a shared strategic objective. The chapter concludes by foreshadowing the detailed discussion on organizational strategies in the next section.
Section 3.2 introduces the concept of strategy in the context of a nonviolent resistance movement, drawing inspiration from military strategies outlined in Sun Tzu's Art of War. The text compares a movement to a war, emphasizing that, although nonviolent means replace weapons, activists must understand how to effectively utilize nonviolent methods as tools.
The text highlights that a nationwide nonviolent resistance movement typically involves numerous organizations collaborating. Examples, such as the Myanmar democracy movement in the 1990s, East Timor independence movement, and Poland's Solidarity labor union movement, illustrate the decentralized nature of movements with local groups operating based on shared goals and guiding principles.
Building on these theoretical insights, the text assumes that the "先导" (Pioneer) team positions itself within the national knowledge sphere to activate a united nationwide opposition movement. This movement, termed the "先导知识运动" (Pioneer Knowledge Movement) or "新教育运动" (New Education Movement/NEM), aims to overthrow the established subjects, content, and educational system in the current education system.
The rationale behind designing this movement lies in the Pioneer team's belief that, as a knowledge-oriented organization, venturing into unfamiliar areas such as labor, farmer, student, or citizen movements would limit their potential for future expansion, societal communication, and mobilization capabilities. The team expresses confidence in effectively intervening in the existing education system to promote a new education system, breaking free from China's long-standing indoctrination education.
The NEM sets out to resist the current education system, leading the way and inspiring all knowledge elites to join the opposition movement, ultimately causing a paralysis of the existing education system. The text emphasizes the need to establish seemingly impossible long-term goals for a successful movement, contrasting with short-term and easily achievable goals that often lead to unpredictable outcomes and difficulties in preserving movement achievements.
The example provided illustrates that if NEM were to set an easily achievable goal, like offering online courses, the attracted students might not represent the target group – knowledge elites. This would hinder the movement's progress to the next stage, leading to unpredictable future developments and blind, step-by-step actions.
NEM's long-term goals are established through learning nonviolent movement strategy knowledge, applying it to the strategic formulation process. The subsequent content in the chapter promises to detail NEM's strategy formulation and evaluation based on this knowledge.
Section 3.2.1 elaborates on the strategic phases of a movement, emphasizing the need to set seemingly unattainable goals and break them down into manageable tasks, akin to decomposing complex tasks in computer language. The approach involves dividing the intricate work into numerous simpler tasks, as demonstrated by Stanford University professor's creation of computer animation, starting from a basic bouncing ball.
Marovic (2021) categorizes a movement's strategy into three levels, represented in the lower-left diagram as three tiers of strategic planning. The highest level, termed "STRATEGY" in the diagram, corresponds to the long-term plan – a single organization's strategic plan aiming to achieve the movement's ultimate goal. In the case of NEM, this goal is to "overthrow the established subjects, content, and educational system in the current education system."
To attain such a goal, viable pathways must be laid out for team analysis and discussion. The Pioneer team identifies two potential paths: relying on the existing education system to force reform through persuasion, protests, urging students and parents to resist, or directly establishing a new educational system, a parallel structure in education. After discussing the first path's feasibility and concluding its unlikelihood due to the government's resistance to change, the team favors the second path despite its challenges.
Choosing the second path initiates the first step in strategic goal decomposition – the concretization of strategic goals or tasks. This sets the stage for the second level of strategic design, labeled "CAMPAIGN" in the diagram. This level involves turning the detailed goal into several implementation stages, each with its corresponding interim goals or tasks, referred to as "campaigns" in warfare and "movements" in nonviolent resistance.
For NEM, the three-stage movement structure is presented as an illustrative example, acknowledging that, in practice, three stages may be insufficient. The text explains the launch conditions for each stage and how the completion of the second stage sets the target for the third stage. The third stage aims to attract students nationwide to voluntarily abandon the official education system and enter the NEM education system. To initiate the third stage, specific conditions must be met in the second stage, which, in turn, hinges on achieving particular targets in the first stage.
The text briefly skips the derivation process, assuming the Pioneer team has established the first stage's task goals. The initiation of the first stage movement involves specifying the strategic goal's path, either through self-establishment or collaboration with a third party. While some team members argue for a visible public movement, others stress the strategic importance of ultimately building a parallel, scalable education system rather than an early public display of the movement.
The next part of the text delves into the detailed execution of the first stage movement, focusing on the specific implementation plans or tactics. This phase, depicted as the third level in the diagram (top diagram), is referred to as "TACTICS." It involves defining concrete actions corresponding to each stage of the movement. Various specific ideas can be proposed at this level, such as the need for NEM to establish courses, design curricula, and create educational materials.
The team now shifts to the finer details of execution, contemplating how to implement the first stage movement's goals. Suggestions include setting up courses, designing curricula, and developing educational materials. The team considers how to make the new education system enticing to students, emphasizing that it must demonstrate superior quality compared to the existing system. To achieve this, collaboration with credible education systems outside China is proposed, recognizing the challenges of establishing credibility independently in a short time.
The document briefly mentions that specific tactics require further detailed planning during the execution of the movement plan. It stresses the importance of developing a detailed plan at this stage.
The text then reflects on why a nationwide movement requires numerous organizations, highlighting the three hierarchical levels of organizational strategic planning. It draws an analogy to a strategic business case involving different retailers' strategic choices for online vegetable shopping. The diverse backgrounds and limitations of each retailer influence their strategic decisions, emphasizing that the effectiveness of a chosen path may not be immediately evident.
The importance of an open-minded approach is emphasized, encouraging different teams to progress the movement in ways they deem most suitable without judging others' choices. The analogy underscores the significance of an open mindset and collaboration in a movement that involves significant national transformation.
The conclusion drawn from the analysis is that openness and acceptance of different approaches are crucial. Teams should follow their ideologies and plans, recognizing that the effectiveness of a chosen path is determined by facts, and the ultimate result of the movement is more important than the success or failure of individual small teams.
The discussion reinforces the interconnectedness of the three hierarchical levels in the strategy, with the movement serving as the key link. Movements, in their logic and timeline, establish a high correlation between tactics and strategic goals. The implementation of movements hinges on crucial decisions, such as choosing actions under movement goals, representing the tactics. Additionally, determining when a movement starts and ends, progressing to the next stage or the climax of the movement, is identified as a challenging decision within a movement. These aspects are highlighted as topics for further discussion in the following sections.
The next part discusses the importance of using technical tools in formulating strategies to ensure the practical feasibility of plans. It compares this process to driving a car, emphasizing that adherence to rules and the use of technology are essential to avoid accidents.
One such technical tool mentioned is the SWOT analysis, which evaluates strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The analysis should be a collective effort by the team, dividing into four groups to assess each theme and then collectively evaluate the situation. The document provides a simplified SWOT analysis table for reference, considering both internal and external factors affecting the movement.
The SWOT analysis is acknowledged as a careful process that needs to be cautious to avoid misjudgments and errors. A severe misjudgment in the SWOT analysis could lead to a failure in achieving the expected goals of the entire strategic plan, wasting time and resources.
Recognizing the limitation of SWOT, which focuses on the current state without considering future changes, the need for a backup plan (B plan) is emphasized. In the event of extreme situations, where a single factor has an overwhelming impact, the team is advised to devise B plans to address the consequences of each extreme scenario. This involves a TOWS analysis, considering each element as a single factor causing extreme effects.
The role of B plans is highlighted through examples, such as the Solidarity labor union in Poland facing extreme circumstances, and the crash of the Polish president's plane in 2010. These instances demonstrate the importance of having plans in place to navigate through extreme events and maintain the minimal operation of the system.
The text introduces two additional technical strategic design tools: Alliance Spectrum Analysis and Power Pillar Theory. The subsequent sections promise to explain how NEM utilizes these tools to develop its plans.
The "Spectrum of Allies" is a strategy developed by George Lakey to effectively convey information to the public during movements. It involves segmenting the audience into a broad spectrum and tailoring specific messages for different subgroups to avoid alienating anyone. The goal is not to make everyone an active supporter but to shift different groups slightly toward supporting the movement, isolating the rulers and prompting passive opponents, like police and military, to stand neutrally.
The text then introduces the "Power Pillar Theory," developed by Gene Sharp and his collaborator Saffiyah. This theory analyzes the power structure of a society, identifying a group that provides essential support to maintain and expand the current regime and rulers, termed "power pillars." These pillars include various entities like police, military, ruling institutions, public servants, education systems, organized religious institutions, state-controlled media, business, and other organizations. The theory suggests that attacking the weakest pillar, based on the movement's characteristics, can lead to the collapse of the entire power structure.
In summary, both the "Spectrum of Allies" and the "Power Pillar Theory" are strategic tools that nonviolent movements can employ to effectively communicate with the public and dismantle the power structure, respectively. These approaches aim to garner support, neutralize passive opponents, and strategically weaken pillars of power to bring about social change.
The strategic analysis for NEM involves targeting the education sector, specifically focusing on the weakest pillar in the power structure. The plan unfolds in three steps:
- Education System Disruption: NEM aims to strike at the education department, considering it a vulnerable target within the power structure. Starting with a particular stage and group, NEM plans to expand its influence gradually, creating a parallel and effective education system to paralyze the enemy's educational institutions.
- Spectrum of Allies Approach: Utilizing the Spectrum of Allies, NEM categorizes people into active allies, passive allies, neutrals, passive opponents, and active opponents. The strategy involves converting passive allies into active ones, especially those who dislike the current education system but feel trapped. Tailored messages through the Spectrum of Allies help reach different groups with varying intensity.
- Challenging the Educational Authorities: NEM plans to challenge educational authorities by attracting a majority of students. This strategy aims to tarnish the reputation of educational institutions, making them unable to monopolize education. As NEM progresses, it seeks to create a powerful mobilization force through a united front with other movement organizations, culminating in large-scale public actions like protests and strikes.
In conclusion, the success of a movement depends on careful organization, strategic planning, and understanding the different stages of mobilization. Misjudgments of success or failure in movements often stem from a shallow understanding of the complexities involved and the hidden groundwork carried out by successful movements before gaining public attention.
The SMART strategy evaluation tool helps define specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound goals for a movement's objectives. Applying this tool to NEM's first phase, where the goal is to establish an educational program plan, can be analyzed as follows:
- Specific (S): The goal is to create an education project plan, determining the educational model, subjects, curriculum, and schedule.
- Measurable (M): Success is measured by whether the outlined plans are achieved within the specified time.
- Achievable (A): The team assesses the feasibility of the goal, considering factors like finding partners within the given timeframe.
- Relevant (R): Evaluation ensures that the goal aligns with long-term strategic objectives, questioning if, for example, a petition to the government education department in this phase serves long-term goals.
- Time-Bound (T): The goal is set within a time frame, typically around a year for a movement. The team determines when the first phase starts and completes, ensuring a clear timeframe even if the results aren't as expected.
In selecting tactics for the first phase of NEM's movement, the team is likely to focus on constructive approaches, given the potential risks associated with confrontational methods. The preference for constructive tactics allows the team to engage in actions that are not entirely public, minimizing the risk of participant arrests and penalties.
Within the constructive category, NEM might consider various tactics, such as communication strategies that are open to the public but do not disclose participant information, enabling individuals to decide whether to join the movement. The three main types of resistance behaviors—verbal expression, omission of actions, and active engagement—are evaluated based on their relevance to the movement's goals.
The emphasis for NEM is likely to be on proactive actions, especially in building an alternative education system to counter the government-controlled one. This aligns with the strategic choice of constructing alternative institutions or actions to replace the existing system.
It's crucial to note that some actions, while considered brave, might not align with the principles of nonviolent resistance. Actions that rely on conventional or legal procedures, lack replicability, involve non-partisan third parties, require some level of cooperation from the adversary, or primarily serve material supply purposes may not be regarded as nonviolent resistance tactics.
As NEM progresses, the team can strategically choose specific tactics within these categories for the first phase of the movement, aligning them with the overarching goals and principles of nonviolent resistance.
The next section discusses the nonviolent movement strategy outlined for NEM (New Education Movement). It emphasizes the importance of thorough research, strategic planning, and the careful selection of tactics for each stage of the movement.
Key points include the need for multiple organizations to collaborate, the establishment of long-term plans with phased movements, and the selection or development of tactics based on existing frameworks. It highlights the significance of unity among various movement organizations during the peak of the movement, resembling a coordinated effort similar to an election campaign.
Additionally, the text encourages movement organizations not to be overly concerned about the legality of their actions, as the definition of legality may vary based on regional regulations. The author expresses hope for the initiation of numerous movements and anticipates their eventual unity to achieve historical political freedom.